Elections Matter… for Financial Planning
While elections are unreliable signals for investors, they produce actionable information for financial planners. The party in the White House and in power in Congress will influence tax brackets, estate taxes, retirement plans, and many other rules and regulations
Does Anyone Remember August?
The S&P 500 fell 8.5% over two weeks in August. Does anyone remember this? Through September 30, the index was up 20.8%, the best start to the year since 1997. August was another example of a mini slide that feels momentous and then falls into history’s dustbin.
Webinar with Apollo Lupescu from Dimensional Funds
Our webinar yesterday with Apollo Lupescu was full of great anecdotes and information.
Q2 2024 Commentary
Every bull market, a stock breaks into the Zeitgeist. A few years ago, it was Tesla. This bull market, it is Nvidia.
Webinar - Cybersecurity Trends and Best Practices
You may leave a bit paranoid, perhaps appropriately so. Still, we can all remain safe online by remaining guarded and following practical tips.
Don’t Mix Politics and Investing
As we approach another election season, the chatter about its potential impact on financial markets is hard to ignore.
Best Practices to Prevent and Deal with Cybersecurity Breaches
Securing and keeping a watchful eye on the accounts you entrust to us is our foremost duty. In light of increasing threats, we want to remind everyone to stay informed and vigilant.
We have assembled a checklist of best practices to prevent and deal with cybersecurity breaches.
AI and the Investing Landscape
We had a fascinating conversation on the investment landscape for Artificial Intelligence (AI) with Marc Nabi of Capital Group on Wednesday.
Roaring 2020s?
In the throes of March 2020 and October 2022, no one foresaw an imminent bull market. Many obsessed over how much deeper stocks would plunge. Per the recently departed Charlie Munger, “the first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.”
Burton Enright Welch Receives InvestmentNews Best Places to Work Award
We have news we’re proud to share. For the first time, InvestmentNews named Burton Enright Welch to its 2024 “Best Places to Work for Financial Advisors” list.
Replay: Webinar with Osterweis
We had another fantastic conversation with the portfolio managers of the Osterweis Strategic Income Fund this week.
2023 Recap - A Pessimism-Defying Rally
This time last year, pessimism was rampant. Investors had just endured a brutal 2022, inflation was high, and every 2023 forecast referred to a potential, likely, or inevitable recession.
End of Year Note + BEW Webinar + Links
At the risk of spiking the football on the one-yard line, 2023 has turned into a great year for investors.
An Overview of Tax Changes in 2024
As it does annually, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced 2024 updates, including adjusting figures for inflation.
The Ins and Outs of Roth Conversions - a Powerful Planning Tool
For most Americans, fall means football season. For financial planners, fall means Roth conversion season. There may be no financial planning strategy that is more impactful and underused than Roth conversions.
The SAVE Plan: A Student Loan Solution
For years, student loans have been burdened by uncertainty. For the millions of Americans who will start repaying their loans this month, the SAVE plan may offer a solution they have been waiting for.
Q3 2023 Commentary - T-Bill and Chill?
The S&P 500 is up 12% this year, cash is paying 5%, and inflation has retreated under 4%. Investors must be feeling pretty good, right?
Q3 2023 Commentary - Summer is Over
This summer felt like a return to normal, a respite from years of nonstop abnormality.
Webinar Replay with Apollo Lupesco, PhD
We hosted a fantastic webinar last Wednesday with Apollo Lupesco, PhD. Apollo has an incredible ability to contextualize the thorniest issues in investing.
BEW Webinar with Apollo Lupescu – Weds, Sept 20 at 10 a.m. + Links
The Acquired podcast does long, wonderful deep dives into iconic businesses. Two recent shows were fantastic.
Q2 2023 Commentary
Despite rampant recession-talk heading into 2023, the stock market has had a strong first half of the year. Pessimistic forecasters kept many investors on the sidelines. While a recession may come, pessimists may have missed a great entry into the market.
Webinar Replay with Capital Group's Kent Chan
Our conversation with Kent Chan travelled the globe and covered a wide range of topics including Artificial Intelligence (AI), small cap vs. large cap stocks, the opportunity in China, and why Europe remains attractive.
What the Debt Ceiling Means for Markets
The debt ceiling and specter of the United States defaulting is generating loud headlines. The volume will likely increase in the coming weeks, as the government runs out of money absent a resolution.
Bond-ed to Low Rates? Why It’s Time to Review Old Savings Bonds
Some of our clients have discovered or inherited long-forgotten paper savings bonds. Excitement turns to confusion about what to do with these antiquated investments.
Q1 2023 Commentary
Why aren’t stocks going down? The near-term landscape is full of obvious risks and precarity. Shouldn’t the market reflect the dark horizons? Sometimes, the market goes up because of good news. Sometimes, it goes up because the bad news is no worse than what investors already expected.
Webinar Replay: Seafarer
Below is a replay of a fascinating and globe-trotting conversation with Paul Espinosa, co-portfolio manager of the Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income Fund (SIGIX/SFGIX).
The Newly Exciting World of Cash Alternatives
Over the previous decade, it didn’t matter much whether you left cash at the bank or put it in a money market fund, CD, Treasury, or under your mattress.
Today, though still modest, savings account rates are at their highest level since the Great Recession. Meanwhile, yields on cash alternatives have skyrocketed.
2022: The Year of the Rug Pull
With a year as dismal as 2022, it’s natural to want to assign blame: inflation, the Fed, war, etc. The best and simplest answer may also be the least dramatic and fulfilling – markets fell a lot because they went up too much in the first place.
New Year, New Legislation: SECURE Act 2.0
In the final days of 2022, the Federal Government signed into law the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023, which includes a retirement bill titled the SECURE Act 2.0. SECURE Act 2.0 builds upon retirement plan changes that were introduced in the 2019 SECURE Act.
A Positive Note at the End of a Tough Year
Discoveries like these will generate significant benefits in the coming decades. Companies will harness their power and disseminate their value throughout the global economy. Diversified and patient investors will capture much of that value.
Webinar Replay: Osterweis
Carl Kaufman gives the Fed a C+ for their moves this year. Like the embarrassing uncle, the Fed is late to the party with raising rates and may be overstaying their welcome.
What Recessions Don’t Mean for Markets
While it’s been forty years, we have seen this movie before. No one knows whether we are in the early, middle, or late innings of this inflation story. What we do know is that the Fed is enacting a cure that has been effective. Like last time, investors must endure pain while we wait for the cure to work.
Pessimism and the Paradox of Investing
The paradox and opportunity of investing is that the best times to invest are when people feel the worst. As counter intuitive as it may seem, this may be one of those times.
BEW Webinar with DFA’s Apollo Lupescu, PhD
Apollo is matchless at weaving together data, anecdotes, and behavioral biases to educate investors on how to make sound, evidence-based decisions. His lessons are evergreen, but they are especially important to recognize in the face of harrowing markets, like we see today.
Apple, Snapchat, and the Long-Term Case for Stocks
Discussions about investing often overlook the obvious fact that stocks are businesses. Although we invest in mutual funds and ETFs (baskets of stocks), individual stocks can help illustrate the long-term case for investing and why, in part, the market is down.
The Bear Market and Future Returns
Crashes always feel like opportunities in retrospect and like risks in the present.
Because the day-to-day experience of a bear market is so draining, investors need to absorb the glass-half-full case to remain fortified.
Tech Stocks vs. the Fed
With low rates, investors prefer stories about the future over earnings today. When rates rise, investors begin to prefer earnings today over stories about the future.
Investing in Bonds
It was the worst three month stretch for bonds since 1980. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate bond index fell 6%. The index yields about 2.5%, meaning it lost over two years of expected income in a quarter. Add in high inflation, and bonds had a dismal start to the year.
Replay: Webinar with Former U.S. Ambassador to Germany
We enjoyed a fascinating conversation with John Emerson, Vice Chairman of Capital Group and former U.S. Ambassador to Germany. Here are some highlights…
Replay: Webinar with Tony Coniaris of Oakmark Funds
We find it fascinating to hear Tony describe how much process, consideration, and analysis goes into building Oakmark portfolios. We encourage everyone who missed the webinar to watch the replay. Let us know if you have any questions or feedback on the discussion.
2021 Year-End Summary
Lesser challenges have derailed past bull markets. And yet, we’re thirteen years into the post-Great Recession uptrend. All but three of those years have featured double-digit S&P 500 returns. The last three years have been the best run since the late 1990s.
What a wonderful time to be an investor, right?
BEW Webinar with David Polak of Capital Group
David then unpacked how 2021 has affected his views on China (made him more wary), taking us through how the government approaches which sectors to support and which to regulate. He addressed how the global surge in venture capital may lead to more dominant international companies, the mechanics around Brexit, and what sectors and trends he believes may be interesting opportunities in the years ahead.
BEW Trip to Napa
Two years after our last firm social gathering, in September we took a half-day adventure to the ONEHOPE Winery in Napa Valley. With so many new faces here, it was great to break out of the office/virtual world and enjoy each other’s company.
Why Everyone Needs an (Up-to-Date!) Estate Plan
An up-to-date estate plan goes beyond just trying to minimize taxes and expenses. At its core, estate planning ensures that your assets transfer to whom you want and that the right person(s) has the power to make financial and medical decisions on your behalf. In addition, by removing uncertainty about your wishes in case of incapacity or death, a proper estate plan provides peace of mind for you and your loved ones.
Podcast: Ben Peters Discusses His Journey to BEW
Today, Ben Peters is a Lead Advisor and Principal at Burton Enright Welch, as well as BEW’s Chief Compliance Offer. But his career journey was far from typical. He was recently featured on the New Planner Podcast, a show hosted by New Planning Recruiting co-founder Caleb Brown that helps people start and accelerate their financial planning careers. Ben talks about his unconventional path and what he finds most rewarding about his work as a financial planner.
BEW Leadership Team Annoucement
I am reaching out today to share the exciting news that Ben Peters is joining Peter Burton, Bob Enright, and me as a co-owner of Burton Enright Welch.
Our Approach to Rebalancing: A Case Study
March 2020 offers an excellent case study for how BEW rebalances client portfolios. Studies demonstrate that rebalancing systems drive significant long-term value. March 2020 was a strong validation of concept.
2020 Year-End Summary
Second, 2020 should humble investors from drawing direct lines from the news or their lives to stock markets. Most expect the market narrative to match their worldview. Often, this approach allows fear to drive action. There are too many variables with too much unpredictability, uncertainty, and potential bias for anyone to reliably draw these lines.
Watch: Webinar with John Emerson, Former U.S. Ambassador to Germany
We had a fascinating conversation with John Emerson. He provides such a wealth of experience and knowledge, we could have picked his brain for much longer than an hour.
Election Years and the Stock Market: Don't Play Politics with Your Portfolio
Most everyone is tired of hearing about the election. We are too. Still, considering the event’s significance and our conversations with worried investors, we want to share some thoughts and information.
Watch: Q&A with the Portfolio Managers of the Osterweis Strategic Income Fund
The Fed actions in suppressing interest income is like Aesop’s fable where the wind and the sun try to see who can make a man remove his coat. The sun wins because the harder the wind blows the tighter the man holds onto his coat. Similarly, the more the Fed pushes rates lower, the more people save and the less they spend.
2019 Year-End Summary
In many ways, 2019 was a fitting end to the 2010s. Many decade-long themes continued: U.S. and tech stock outperformance, gains amid geopolitical tumult, and scrutiny over Federal Reserve policy.
The Three Drivers of Equity Returns
To paraphrase Howard Marks, there is no asset so good that it can’t become a bad investment at too high a price. Our dual investment mandate is to compound clients’ wealth and remain mindful of the risks. The current U.S. bull market has done the compounding part well. We believe that a conservative approach to U.S. stocks pays heed to the potential risks moving forward.
Social Security Planning for Divorced or Widowed - Case Studies
While the 2016 Social Security law curbed certain claiming strategies, there are still valuable and often-overlooked ways to optimize your benefits. Here, we’ll highlight a couple cases we recently worked on to maximize clients’ Social Security income.
BE's 30-Year Anniversary
July 4, 2019 marked 30 years (!!!) since Peter Burton and Bob Enright’s handshake agreement to form a partnership that lasts until today. Legend has it that fireworks went off when they shook hands.
Three-Peat for BEW
For the third year in a row, we are proud to announce our inclusion on the Financial Times’ Top 300 ranking of the country’s top independent RIA (Registered Investment Advisory) firms.
Tax Planning: Lumping Charitable Contributions
Deduction lumping tries to overcome the higher standard deduction hurdle. By concentrating multiple years of deductions within the same tax year, it’s possible to produce a tax benefit that otherwise would not have happened.
2018 Year-End Summary
Last year reminded everyone that investing is hard. It can be uncomfortable and unpleasant. Market volatility can diminish willpower and cause determination to waver. The main risk is not portfolio declines. The real risk is that instincts override the discipline investors need to achieve their long-term plan.
Understanding Tax Loss Harvesting
While down markets are unwelcome, they provide opportunities to use trading strategies to add to after-tax returns.
The Stock Market Does Not Equal The Economy
The relationship between the economy and stock market is not as strong as many expect. Economic data is backward-looking; it uses what has already happened to estimate where the economy is.
The market is forward-looking. Today’s economic data is already reflected in stock prices. Expectations and emotion (fear and greed) drive short-term stock prices far more than economic fundamentals.
What Is a Mutual Fund?
At the heart of our process are the tools we use. Most are mutual funds. In discussions, we often gloss over this fact and cut straight to how the funds are allocated. Here, we will take a step back and review some mutual fund basics.
BEW Named One of Bay Area's Largest Wealth Management Firms
We're proud to announce that the San Francisco Business Times named Burton Enright Welch one of the Bay Area's top 50 largest wealth management firms.
Dealing with the Taxation of Capital Gain Distributions
In wrapping up your 2017 taxes, you may have noticed that your account produced more taxable income than in previous years. Much of the reason may be capital gain distributions, a negative symptom of a positive trend.
Our Approach to Bitcoin
Blockchain appears to be a wonderful technology that may eventually yield tremendous economic and societal value. No matter how Bitcoin’s story unfolds, it will be an interesting study in FOMO, markets, and psychology.
2017 Year-End Summary
In sum, everyone should take a moment to appreciate 2017 and pat themselves on the back. As always, the world offered many causes for concern. You overcame skepticism, remained disciplined, and profited.
BEW Named Top Adviser by the Financial Times
We are proud to share that the Financial Times named Burton Enright Welch one of its Top 300 Registered Investment Advisers for 2017.
What is a Share Class Exchange?
That ignores the opportunity cost of lost growth. Every year of Isaac’s fee savings is invested. If Isaac earned 7.00% annualized for 30 years and Henry earned 6.75%, that 0.25% difference amounts to over half a million dollars! Compound interest: the 8th wonder of the world!
Social Security Full Retirement Age Rises in 2017
For the first time since 2005, the Social Security full retirement age (FRA) will rise in 2017.
2016 Year-End Summary
"Anyone who isn't confused doesn't really understand the situation." -Edward R. Murrow
Interviews with Bob About His Alma Mater
Our Bob Enright has made a couple of appearances the last few weeks talking about his alma mater, University of San Francisco.
Avoid Home Bias When Investing
Today, a few clicks lets you buy stocks anywhere. With the world's stocks on every menu, investors' have collectively allocated capital according to the cartogram. Yet individually, investors greatly prefer domestic portfolios.
Active Mutual Fund Managers: Top-down or Bottom-up Stock Picking
Here is an excellent video on Seafarer's website that illustrates the bottom-up process.
Seafarer's Story: How and why we added Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income Fund to our Portfolios
Naturally, Dorian Gray came up in a discussion about emerging market currencies (the connection is obvious right?!). Andrew Foster, founder and portfolio manager of Seafarer Funds, was explaining to us his outlook when impromptu he launched into Dorian Gray.
Why “Fee-Only” is Important When Working with an Advisor
The world runs on incentives. Often, the challenge in investing is to figure out how to entrust your money with people whose incentives are best aligned with your own.
Beware of Forecasting Season
January means it’s time for the media to pronounce its always-bold, never-remembered New Year’s predictions. You will see, hear, and read grand prognostications. They have a general bias to provoking fear. Take them lightly.
Financial Advice for Your Child
Here is a wonderful blog post by Morgan Housel on financial advice he hopes to one day give his newborn son.
How to Approach Down Periods in the Markets
In the short term, markets are about Psychology;
in the medium term, they are about Economics;
and in the long term, they are about Valuations.
What If I Bought Apple...
There is a tendency, even among those who have owned Apple, to daydream about having jumped on board even earlier: "But what if I had bought Apple right after its IPO in 1980?!"
No Pain, No Gain: Dealing with Volatile Markets
The best (though understandably frustrating) explanation for the present volatility is that stock markets are doing what they often do in the short-term: fluctuate unpredictably.
Risk Is Counterintuitive: Avoid Following the Herd
Fear of the unknown is an instinct that helps us survive, but acts against our better judgment as investors. It pushes us toward the perception of safety.
"The Market Is at an All-Time High..." What Does this Mean for Investors?
"On a daily basis, the S&P 500 trades at an all-time high 7% of the time and trades within 5% of an all-time high 36% of the time. This means that on 43% of all days, since the S&P 500’s inception, US large cap stocks were at or close to making new records. Anyone who tells you that new highs are abnormal or a reason to sell is a fool."
Emerging Markets Overview
“Emerging markets” is an asset class of developing countries that share little in common geographically, economically, or in size. What does unite them is higher expected returns and higher risk than developed markets.
The Power of Investing Diversification
Here are a couple of fantastic slides that highlight some favorite themes: diversification and the average investor's behavioral biases.
Warren Buffett Wisdom
As you may know, we're big fans of Warren Buffett. His latest annual letter to shareholders is a buffet of fantastic takeaways, one of which we already shared.
Here's some more truth:
"Market Timing” is Why Many Individual Investors Underperform the Markets
In a handful of words, this evocative quote by Tadas Viskanta - “Market Timing is a Gateway to Cash Addiction” - cuts to the core of a psychological obstacle that thwarts many investors.
The Power of Compound Interest
Albert Einstein called compound interest "the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it."