Every bull market, a stock breaks into the Zeitgeist. A few years ago, it was Tesla. This bull market, it is Nvidia.

You may leave a bit paranoid, perhaps appropriately so. Still, we can all remain safe online by remaining guarded and following practical tips.

As we approach another election season, the chatter about its potential impact on financial markets is hard to ignore.

Securing and keeping a watchful eye on the accounts you entrust to us is our foremost duty. In light of increasing threats, we want to remind everyone to stay informed and vigilant.

We have assembled a checklist of best practices to prevent and deal with cybersecurity breaches.

We had a fascinating conversation on the investment landscape for Artificial Intelligence (AI) with Marc Nabi of Capital Group on Wednesday.

In the throes of March 2020 and October 2022, no one foresaw an imminent bull market. Many obsessed over how much deeper stocks would plunge. Per the recently departed Charlie Munger, “the first rule of compounding is to never interrupt it unnecessarily.”

We added short-term bonds to many portfolios. Most received short-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). There are three main reasons: (1) Reliable Liquidity for Distributions, (2) Inflation Protection, (3) Diversification.

We have news we’re proud to share. For the first time, InvestmentNews named Burton Enright Welch to its 2024 “Best Places to Work for Financial Advisors” list.

We had another fantastic conversation with the portfolio managers of the Osterweis Strategic Income Fund this week.

This time last year, pessimism was rampant. Investors had just endured a brutal 2022, inflation was high, and every 2023 forecast referred to a potential, likely, or inevitable recession.

At the risk of spiking the football on the one-yard line, 2023 has turned into a great year for investors.

As it does annually, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced 2024 updates, including adjusting figures for inflation.

For most Americans, fall means football season. For financial planners, fall means Roth conversion season. There may be no financial planning strategy that is more impactful and underused than Roth conversions.

For years, student loans have been burdened by uncertainty. For the millions of Americans who will start repaying their loans this month, the SAVE plan may offer a solution they have been waiting for.

The S&P 500 is up 12% this year, cash is paying 5%, and inflation has retreated under 4%. Investors must be feeling pretty good, right?

This summer felt like a return to normal, a respite from years of nonstop abnormality.

We hosted a fantastic webinar last Wednesday with Apollo Lupesco, PhD. Apollo has an incredible ability to contextualize the thorniest issues in investing.

The Acquired podcast does long, wonderful deep dives into iconic businesses. Two recent shows were fantastic.

Despite rampant recession-talk heading into 2023, the stock market has had a strong first half of the year. Pessimistic forecasters kept many investors on the sidelines. While a recession may come, pessimists may have missed a great entry into the market.

Our conversation with Kent Chan travelled the globe and covered a wide range of topics including Artificial Intelligence (AI), small cap vs. large cap stocks, the opportunity in China, and why Europe remains attractive.

The debt ceiling and specter of the United States defaulting is generating loud headlines. The volume will likely increase in the coming weeks, as the government runs out of money absent a resolution.

Some of our clients have discovered or inherited long-forgotten paper savings bonds.  Excitement turns to confusion about what to do with these antiquated investments. 

Why aren’t stocks going down? The near-term landscape is full of obvious risks and precarity. Shouldn’t the market reflect the dark horizons? Sometimes, the market goes up because of good news. Sometimes, it goes up because the bad news is no worse than what investors already expected.

Below is a replay of a fascinating and globe-trotting conversation with Paul Espinosa, co-portfolio manager of the Seafarer Overseas Growth and Income Fund (SIGIX/SFGIX).

Over the previous decade, it didn’t matter much whether you left cash at the bank or put it in a money market fund, CD, Treasury, or under your mattress.

Today, though still modest, savings account rates are at their highest level since the Great Recession. Meanwhile, yields on cash alternatives have skyrocketed.

With a year as dismal as 2022, it’s natural to want to assign blame: inflation, the Fed, war, etc. The best and simplest answer may also be the least dramatic and fulfilling – markets fell a lot because they went up too much in the first place.

In the final days of 2022, the Federal Government signed into law the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023, which includes a retirement bill titled the SECURE Act 2.0. SECURE Act 2.0 builds upon retirement plan changes that were introduced in the 2019 SECURE Act.

Discoveries like these will generate significant benefits in the coming decades. Companies will harness their power and disseminate their value throughout the global economy. Diversified and patient investors will capture much of that value.

Carl Kaufman gives the Fed a C+ for their moves this year. Like the embarrassing uncle, the Fed is late to the party with raising rates and may be overstaying their welcome.

While it’s been forty years, we have seen this movie before. No one knows whether we are in the early, middle, or late innings of this inflation story. What we do know is that the Fed is enacting a cure that has been effective. Like last time, investors must endure pain while we wait for the cure to work.

The paradox and opportunity of investing is that the best times to invest are when people feel the worst. As counter intuitive as it may seem, this may be one of those times.

Apollo is matchless at weaving together data, anecdotes, and behavioral biases to educate investors on how to make sound, evidence-based decisions. His lessons are evergreen, but they are especially important to recognize in the face of harrowing markets, like we see today.

Discussions about investing often overlook the obvious fact that stocks are businesses. Although we invest in mutual funds and ETFs (baskets of stocks), individual stocks can help illustrate the long-term case for investing and why, in part, the market is down.

Crashes always feel like opportunities in retrospect and like risks in the present.

Because the day-to-day experience of a bear market is so draining, investors need to absorb the glass-half-full case to remain fortified.

With low rates, investors prefer stories about the future over earnings today. When rates rise, investors begin to prefer earnings today over stories about the future.

It was the worst three month stretch for bonds since 1980. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate bond index fell 6%. The index yields about 2.5%, meaning it lost over two years of expected income in a quarter. Add in high inflation, and bonds had a dismal start to the year.

We enjoyed a fascinating conversation with John Emerson, Vice Chairman of Capital Group and former U.S. Ambassador to Germany. Here are some highlights…

We find it fascinating to hear Tony describe how much process, consideration, and analysis goes into building Oakmark portfolios. We encourage everyone who missed the webinar to watch the replay. Let us know if you have any questions or feedback on the discussion.

Lesser challenges have derailed past bull markets. And yet, we’re thirteen years into the post-Great Recession uptrend. All but three of those years have featured double-digit S&P 500 returns. The last three years have been the best run since the late 1990s.

What a wonderful time to be an investor, right?

David then unpacked how 2021 has affected his views on China (made him more wary), taking us through how the government approaches which sectors to support and which to regulate. He addressed how the global surge in venture capital may lead to more dominant international companies, the mechanics around Brexit, and what sectors and trends he believes may be interesting opportunities in the years ahead.

Two years after our last firm social gathering, in September we took a half-day adventure to the ONEHOPE Winery in Napa Valley. With so many new faces here, it was great to break out of the office/virtual world and enjoy each other’s company.

An up-to-date estate plan goes beyond just trying to minimize taxes and expenses. At its core, estate planning ensures that your assets transfer to whom you want and that the right person(s) has the power to make financial and medical decisions on your behalf. In addition, by removing uncertainty about your wishes in case of incapacity or death, a proper estate plan provides peace of mind for you and your loved ones.

Today, Ben Peters is a Lead Advisor and Principal at Burton Enright Welch, as well as BEW’s Chief Compliance Offer. But his career journey was far from typical. He was recently featured on the New Planner Podcast, a show hosted by New Planning Recruiting co-founder Caleb Brown that helps people start and accelerate their financial planning careers. Ben talks about his unconventional path and what he finds most rewarding about his work as a financial planner.

I am reaching out today to share the exciting news that Ben Peters is joining Peter Burton, Bob Enright, and me as a co-owner of Burton Enright Welch.

March 2020 offers an excellent case study for how BEW rebalances client portfolios. Studies demonstrate that rebalancing systems drive significant long-term value. March 2020 was a strong validation of concept.

Second, 2020 should humble investors from drawing direct lines from the news or their lives to stock markets. Most expect the market narrative to match their worldview. Often, this approach allows fear to drive action. There are too many variables with too much unpredictability, uncertainty, and potential bias for anyone to reliably draw these lines.

We had a fascinating conversation with John Emerson. He provides such a wealth of experience and knowledge, we could have picked his brain for much longer than an hour.

Most everyone is tired of hearing about the election. We are too. Still, considering the event’s significance and our conversations with worried investors, we want to share some thoughts and information.

The Fed actions in suppressing interest income is like Aesop’s fable where the wind and the sun try to see who can make a man remove his coat. The sun wins because the harder the wind blows the tighter the man holds onto his coat. Similarly, the more the Fed pushes rates lower, the more people save and the less they spend.

In many ways, 2019 was a fitting end to the 2010s. Many decade-long themes continued: U.S. and tech stock outperformance, gains amid geopolitical tumult, and scrutiny over Federal Reserve policy.

To paraphrase Howard Marks, there is no asset so good that it can’t become a bad investment at too high a price. Our dual investment mandate is to compound clients’ wealth and remain mindful of the risks. The current U.S. bull market has done the compounding part well. We believe that a conservative approach to U.S. stocks pays heed to the potential risks moving forward.

While the 2016 Social Security law curbed certain claiming strategies, there are still valuable and often-overlooked ways to optimize your benefits. Here, we’ll highlight a couple cases we recently worked on to maximize clients’ Social Security income.

July 4, 2019 marked 30 years (!!!) since Peter Burton and Bob Enright’s handshake agreement to form a partnership that lasts until today. Legend has it that fireworks went off when they shook hands.

For the third year in a row, we are proud to announce our inclusion on the Financial Times’ Top 300 ranking of the country’s top independent RIA (Registered Investment Advisory) firms.

Deduction lumping tries to overcome the higher standard deduction hurdle. By concentrating multiple years of deductions within the same tax year, it’s possible to produce a tax benefit that otherwise would not have happened.

Last year reminded everyone that investing is hard. It can be uncomfortable and unpleasant. Market volatility can diminish willpower and cause determination to waver. The main risk is not portfolio declines. The real risk is that instincts override the discipline investors need to achieve their long-term plan.

While down markets are unwelcome, they provide opportunities to use trading strategies to add to after-tax returns.

The relationship between the economy and stock market is not as strong as many expect. Economic data is backward-looking; it uses what has already happened to estimate where the economy is.

The market is forward-looking. Today’s economic data is already reflected in stock prices. Expectations and emotion (fear and greed) drive short-term stock prices far more than economic fundamentals.

At the heart of our process are the tools we use. Most are mutual funds. In discussions, we often gloss over this fact and cut straight to how the funds are allocated. Here, we will take a step back and review some mutual fund basics.

We're proud to announce that the San Francisco Business Times named Burton Enright Welch one of the Bay Area's top 50 largest wealth management firms.

In wrapping up your 2017 taxes, you may have noticed that your account produced more taxable income than in previous years. Much of the reason may be capital gain distributions, a negative symptom of a positive trend.

Blockchain appears to be a wonderful technology that may eventually yield tremendous economic and societal value. No matter how Bitcoin’s story unfolds, it will be an interesting study in FOMO, markets, and psychology.

In sum, everyone should take a moment to appreciate 2017 and pat themselves on the back. As always, the world offered many causes for concern. You overcame skepticism, remained disciplined, and profited.  

We are proud to share that the Financial Times named Burton Enright Welch one of its Top 300 Registered Investment Advisers for 2017.

That ignores the opportunity cost of lost growth. Every year of Isaac’s fee savings is invested. If Isaac earned 7.00% annualized for 30 years and Henry earned 6.75%, that 0.25% difference amounts to over half a million dollars! Compound interest: the 8th wonder of the world!

For the first time since 2005, the Social Security full retirement age (FRA) will rise in 2017.

"Anyone who isn't confused doesn't really understand the situation." -Edward R. Murrow

Our Bob Enright has made a couple of appearances the last few weeks talking about his alma mater, University of San Francisco.

Today, a few clicks lets you buy stocks anywhere. With the world's stocks on every menu, investors' have collectively allocated capital according to the cartogram. Yet individually, investors greatly prefer domestic portfolios.

Here is an excellent video on Seafarer's website that illustrates the bottom-up process.

Naturally, Dorian Gray came up in a discussion about emerging market currencies (the connection is obvious right?!). Andrew Foster, founder and portfolio manager of Seafarer Funds, was explaining to us his outlook when impromptu he launched into Dorian Gray.

The world runs on incentives. Often, the challenge in investing is to figure out how to entrust your money with people whose incentives are best aligned with your own.

January means it’s time for the media to pronounce its always-bold, never-remembered New Year’s predictions. You will see, hear, and read grand prognostications. They have a general bias to provoking fear. Take them lightly.

Here is a wonderful blog post by Morgan Housel on financial advice he hopes to one day give his newborn son.

In the short term, markets are about Psychology;

in the medium term, they are about Economics;

and in the long term, they are about Valuations.

There is a tendency, even among those who have owned Apple, to daydream about having jumped on board even earlier: "But what if I had bought Apple right after its IPO in 1980?!"

The best (though understandably frustrating) explanation for the present volatility is that stock markets are doing what they often do in the short-term: fluctuate unpredictably.

Fear of the unknown is an instinct that helps us survive, but acts against our better judgment as investors. It pushes us toward the perception of safety.

"On a daily basis, the S&P 500 trades at an all-time high 7% of the time and trades within 5% of an all-time high 36% of the time. This means that on 43% of all days, since the S&P 500’s inception, US large cap stocks were at or close to making new records. Anyone who tells you that new highs are abnormal or a reason to sell is a fool."

“Emerging markets” is an asset class of developing countries that share little in common geographically, economically, or in size. What does unite them is higher expected returns and higher risk than developed markets. 

Here are a couple of fantastic slides that highlight some favorite themes: diversification and the average investor's behavioral biases.

As you may know, we're big fans of Warren Buffett. His latest annual letter to shareholders is a buffet of fantastic takeaways, one of which we already shared.

Here's some more truth:

In a handful of words, this evocative quote by Tadas Viskanta - “Market Timing is a Gateway to Cash Addiction” - cuts to the core of a psychological obstacle that thwarts many investors.

Albert Einstein called compound interest "the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it."